Severe Weather Discussion for April 25 – May 1, 2016. Issued: 04/25/2016

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of Oklahoma.

– Severe thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Saturday, although Friday is likely the best time for severe thunderstorms.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday – Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday, mid 70s Friday, low 70s Saturday-Sunday.

– This discussion will also serve as the Special Weather Discussion 2016-2-2.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 60%.
– Storm Chase: 30%

Discussion:

Upper system will pass through the northern US today followed by shortwave ridging on Monday. Another shortwave trof will dig into the western US and progress eastward into the region on Tuesday. Models are similar with timing of this feature although there are significant differences relating to surface feature placements. There is significant uncertainty regarding Tuesday and even expected impacts/location of impacts. There are no changes to yesterday’s forecast reasoning and even 18z data didn’t offer much help. Maybe the 00z guidance will provide some assistance for the forecast, but we’ll see. Best guess right now is central Oklahoma will experience the greater impacts, which may mostly be destructive hail to softball size.

Another upper system will move into the base of the western US longwave trof and move towards the region on Friday. Thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and continue through Saturday. There seems potential for severe thunderstorms during this period, with Friday the most likely day. Beyond Friday a cold front is expected to move through the region Saturday or Sunday, which should end storms chances for a few days.

Pulled forecast numbers from NWS, main forecast focus is on Tuesday.

Outlook Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK (valid: 04/25, Day 2):

Slight: 100%
Enhanced: 100%
Moderate: 50%
High: 0%

Chase Status:

May go Friday.

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