Severe Weather Discussion for April 11 – 17, 2016. Issued: 04/10/2016

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are likely early Monday morning across central/eastern Oklahoma and again in southeastern Oklahoma Monday afternoon into the evening.

– Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma late Tuesday into Wednesday.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday, at the very least widespread thunderstorms are likely.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 60s Monday – Tuesday, near 70 Wednesday, mid 70s Thursday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

Severe Thunderstorms: 50%

Discussion:

The weather suddenly gets exciting is probably the best way to describe this week. Incoming shortwave trof is expected to cause severe thunderstorms within the next few hours across southwest Oklahoma. These thunderstorms will move northeast into central sections later today. Farther north, thunderstorms are expected along an incoming cold front this evening. Thunderstorms will likely continue into Monday morning. Another chance for severe thunderstorms is present across southeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon into the early evening as the cold front slowly pushes southward. Rain chances will decrease until late Tuesday when another weak southern stream shortwave trof moves through the region. This one should primarily impact southern Oklahoma with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday will be quiet across the region, although out west a large trof will start developing. This trof will influence our weather through the weekend. Models offer differing solutions on the evolution of this feature with the EC/UOKMET/JMA developing a large closed low just west of the region over central NM. The GFS is farther north across central CO. No reason to believe one model over the other. The primary considerations will be the availability of mid-60s dewpoints across Texas and Oklahoma Saturday and Sunday. The latitudinal differences among the models make forecasting severe weather difficult, however there is a nontrivial threat of severe weather next weekend. Could be that much of the weekend is wet with lots of rain, we really need it. And, closed lows are not the best severe weather producers. Either way, will need to closely monitor weather trends for next weekend. I went with medium end severe weather potential due to the rainfall and severe weather threat, which are not mutually exclusive.

Did not get fancy with numbers, followed 4km NAM and 12z EC. I did go warm on Sunday, although if the EC is correct mid 60s will be likely.

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