Severe Weather Discussion for March 28 – April 3, 2016. Issued: 03/27/2016.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 60s Monday, low 70s Tuesday, upper 70s Wednesday, mid 60s Thursday, low 60s Friday, mid 60s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 35%

Discussion:

Primary feature of interest will be a southern stream shortwave trof progged to eject across Kansas on Wednesday. Leading up to this, Monday-Tuesday will be typical this time of year with increasing surface moisture on Tuesday, precipitation chances are low although non-zero on Tuesday. Moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday as a dryline mixes eastward across Oklahoma during the day. Models offer a variety of solutions re dryline placement and of course upper system. The most likely location for the dryline @7pm Wednesday will be I-35 to HWY 177. I do not believe the GFS placement of this feature and it has been slowly drifting westward the past few model runs. I have attached the NAM placement at 7pm, although again this may be too far east. SPC D4 looks good and the western edge appears appropriate given EC/UOKMET/GFS/NAM placements. Primary threat is large hail although shear and moisture do support tornadoes. I’m not sure if this will evolve into an enhanced risk, but do think it is possible for parts of eastern Oklahoma. NAM does exhibit a veer-back-veer setup, which would reduce the tornado threat. Although this event is a few days away. Overall, dewpoints in the low/mid 60s combined with temperatures in the 70s will yield CAPE values AOA 2000J/Kg. Good wind shear and long curved storm slinky support organized storms. SHARPpy data for eastern Oklahoma shows tornado as possible hazard type.

Beyond Wednesday, eastern U.S. longwave trof dominates the pattern with ridging across the western U.S. Models show a southern stream system traversing Texas late Saturday into Sunday. Low confidence in this system producing any sensible weather keeps POPs out of the forecast.

First guess at numbers looked good and only adjusted Sunday based on EC/GFS.

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