Severe Weather Discussion for March 21 – 27, 2016. Issued: 03/20/2016

Highlights:

– A few severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the eastern half of Oklahoma.

– Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 60s Monday, upper 70s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, mid 50s Thursday, low 60s Friday, mid 60s Saturday and upper 60s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 20%

Discussion:

Primary interest this week will focus on expected development of a medium wavelength trof just west of the region by Wednesday. Models offer a variety of solutions relative to timing of this system, which has implication for sensible impacts. EC model is slower than the NAM/UOKMET/GFS. The differences are minor overall, but do shift the dryline west to between I-35/US 177 Wednesday afternoon. For now will go with EC since it is a reasonable solution. If the other models are correct with timing, the threat will be far eastern OK. Marginal moisture advects into the state by Wednesday afternoon characterized by upper 50s to maybe low 60s across eastern Oklahoma. Despite this, CAPE values end up near 2000 J/Kg with PW values mainly 0.9 with some moisture pooling in northeast Oklahoma (EC). SPC has placed southeast Oklahoma in a 15% area for Wednesday. This looks good, although expect more of eastern Oklahoma to be included in later updates if the EC is correct.

Back tracking a little, Monday and Tuesday will see critical wildfire conditions across the state, primarily due to low RH on Monday then a combination of strong winds and hot temperatures on Tuesday. The threat will continue Wednesday west of the dryline but south of a cold front (northern OK). The worst day may be Wednesday as several meteorological parameters combine for a high-end wildfire threat in western/central OK.

Cold front moves across the state Thursday, with cooling expected into Friday. Models differ greatly by next weekend, when another shortwave trof may approach the region. The EC is more amplified with this feature than the GFS, which keeps it more connected to the northern jet. The EC solution has been the overall trend recently and will follow it again. As such, I went with showers and thunderstorms on Easter. If the GFS is correct, limited activity can be expected and mainly on Saturday.

First guess at numbers look good. A little off from NWS during the period, but nothing significant.

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