Severe Weather Discussion for March 14 – 20, 2016. Issued: 03/13/2016.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday – Saturday, although it will not rain the entire time. Snow is possible in NW Oklahoma and the panhandle late Friday into early Saturday.

– Temperatures will be in the low 80s Monday, near 70F Tuesday, upper 60 Wednesday, mid 60s Thursday, upper 50s Friday – Sunday.

– Spring starts Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Winter Precip: 5%

Discussion:

Compact low responsible for the ongoing severe weather east of Oklahoma will move rapidly east the next few days and weaken. Another shortwave trof will approach the region by Tuesday as a longwave trof develops over the central U.S. The initial shortwave trof appears to have little impact on the region, other than lowering temperatures from Monday. The next system will round the base of the larger trof on Thursday and likely result in showers and maybe some thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday. Models have offered a variety of solutions with this second system and more importantly the potential for snow. Recently upgraded EC seems hooked on snow for NW OK and the panhandle, although amounts should not be significant. Will go with slight snow chances given cold upper system and favorable pattern. Elsewhere, mainly a cool rain will occur as this system moves across the region on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the upper system moves east and shortwave ridging moves into the area.

Temperatures look very nice early into mid week, then getting cooler towards the weekend. Numbers and POPs look good when compared to NWS, so no changes from first guess.

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