Severe Weather Discussion for March 7 – 13, 2016

Severe Weather Discussion for March 7 – 13, 2016.
Issued: 03/06/2016.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday with large hail the primary threat. A brief tornado or two is also possible. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with primary influence shifting south into southern Oklahoma. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday-Friday.

– Temperatures will be near 70F Monday – Tuesday, upper 60s Wednesday – Friday, low 70s Saturday – Sunday.

– Time change Sunday 03/13, 2am.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 25%

Discussion:

Developing closed low in Mexico will be the primary story maker this week. Models agree this system will close of and meander quite slowly eastward across central Mexico into southern Texas. By the end of the week, an upstream kicker should eject this system northeast. Primary influence across the region will occur Monday and Tuesday as a lead shortwave trof ejects northeast across CO/NM late Monday. Marginal dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s with temperatures in the 70s should create CAPE values @2500 J/Kg. NAM soundings show a veer-back-veer setup late Monday, which would limit tornado potential. Convective allowing models are also rather dry near the dryline, with main precip in eastern Oklahoma near the low level jet. Parameters do favor supercells, although when storms initiate seems to be in question right now. I do think a few severe thunderstorms are possible in western Oklahoma late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours. A better chance of severe thunderstorms moves in early Tuesday morning across parts of Oklahoma as another shortwave trof ejects across the region.

By Wednesday (see attached 12km NAM 500mb image) the closed low has settled into Mexico and much of the influence will be in Texas and southern Oklahoma. This will remain the case through Friday. I left POPs out next weekend as conditions should be dry across the state.

Went with first guess numbers, as they are pretty close and daily temps are going to be strongly governed by convection.

 

nam_z500_uv_vort_west_17

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