SPC Day Two Severe Weather Outlook (3/7/16)

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2016

VALID 071200Z – 081200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN GREAT PLAINS…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL GREAT PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MAINLY ON MONDAY NIGHT…BUT MAY COMMENCE LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

…SYNOPSIS…
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 12Z/MON SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS NEB/SD BY 12Z/TUE…WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SRN CA COAST ACROSS BAJA CA TOWARDS SONORA. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRACKS FROM NERN CO TO SERN SDA LONG A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO CNTRL NEB/KS…WRN OK AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX MON AFTERNOON. SOME RETREAT TO THE DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT WITH A LEE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.

…SRN GREAT PLAINS…
PERSISTENT POLEWARD TRANSPORT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN EML WILL YIELD GRADUALLY INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER 60S PREVALENT
INTO CNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE WEAK DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS THE REGION LIES IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW MEXICO COAST. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS PROBABLE E OF THE DRYLINE…DEEP CONVECTION MAY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST GIVEN A BROAD SWATH OF 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS. ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WHERE THE EML IS WEAKER…LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD FORCE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION BY EVENING WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD…GRAMS.. 03/06/2016

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