Severe Weather Discussion for August 24 – 30, 2015

Issued: 08/23/2015.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday – Friday. Overall coverage isn’t expected to be that great, but opportunities for much needed rain. Yes, the rain is needed in southeast Oklahoma.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday – Tuesday, near 90F Wednesday, mid 80s Thursday, upper 80s Friday and low 90s Saturday – Sunday.

– Tropical Storm Danny is expected to dissipate near Cuba by Wednesday. Erika has not been named but the system behind Danny should become Erika. EC through 10 days has this system recurving without impacting the US. We’ll see on that one, but either way kept tropical storm chances low this week due to no US impacts through the forecast period.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 10%
– Tropical Development: 25%

Discussion:

Upper ridge will remain displaced west of the region the two days and when combined with today’s cold front, will keep temperatures below average Monday and Tuesday. Shortwave trof rounds the northern side of the ridge on Wednesday and moves across the region Thursday/Friday. Thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures are likely. Not sure I went cool enough but really can’t justify anything lower given time of year. Upper system moves out of the region and western ridge elongates across the region by next weekend. Expect temperatures to warm a little as the ridge exerts some influence across the area. Not sure we’ll reach EC temperatures, so went a category below this model next weekend.

CFS2 shows September being near normal, which is a dramatic changes from a few weeks ago when this model had September much below normal. Given the cool summer, would not be shocked to see September warmer than we have had but still near normal.

First guess at numbers matched up closely across the board. NWS and I are close with maybe a category difference, especially next weekend.

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