Severe Weather Discussion for July 20 – 26, 2015

Severe Weather Discussion for July 20 – 26, 2015.
Issued: 07/19/2015.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 90s Monday, low 90s Tuesday – Wednesday, and upper 90s Thursday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 10%

Discussion:

Subtropical ridge will flatten a little bit on Tuesday, allowing for a surface boundary to move into Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are likely along this boundary Tuesday and Wednesday given marginal upper support and high surface moisture. EC 50 member ensembles are quite varied on how much QPF to produce but given Dolores and the surface boundary, may see more than the models are indicating.

Surface boundary washes out and the ridge expands on Thursday, with a return hot conditions across the state. The ridge appears to remain anchored near Oklahoma through the end of the week. All in all the weather pattern appears typical for late July/mid-summer.

First guess at numbers had disturbing agreement with the NWS, so no changes are made. I did not go with the EC temperatures for Thu-Sun, as it seems to high with 100F. The EC numbers have been too warm (IMHO) in the 4-10 day time frame, seemingly due to model Td issues. I think 100F temperatures are near, but not this week. Once we do crack that threshold, we’re in for a some heat. Although there are hints in the climate models that a cool down may occur towards the end of July, we’ll see.

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