Severe Weather Discussion for May 4 – 10, 2015

Severe Weather Discussion for May 4 – 10, 2015.
Issued: 05/04/2015.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are likely across a large part of Oklahoma Tuesday into Thursday. A few severe thunderstorms are possible.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible across Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the low 80s Monday – Tuesday, upper 70s Wednesday – Friday and low 80s Saturday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 45%
– Storm Chase: 30%

Discussion:

Southern stream shortwave trof currently over the SW US will eject northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture return will result in decent low level flow allowing for PW values near 1.4, with best moisture across eastern Oklahoma. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely as this system moves just northwest of Oklahoma on Wednesday. SPC has a slight risk up for Wednesday and this looks good.

Models want to develop a longwave trof out west as another system develops southward into the mean position over the SW US. The western US trof keeps Oklahoma in SW flow aloft with thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday. Even though there won’t be much upper support, minor trof will likely result in convection. Severe thunderstorms may occur but potential seems limited these days.

EC develops another system into the mean longwave position by Thursday. The system moves into Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. Strengthening winds aloft and impressive moisture return will set the stage for severe thunderstorms. Limiting factor this far out will be strength of the EML (cap) and/or speed of the upper system. Although way too early for these details but either way will have to monitor Saturday very closely. EC shows widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning, which modulate the severe weather threat. Sunday also has severe weather potential, but will be a function of Saturday’s convection.

Chase potential does exist for Saturday and could also see higher severe weather potential. Special discussions may be needed but those won’t start until Wednesday.

Didn’t get fancy with numbers today, they seem to match well with NWS.

Verification:

OKC Temps 04/27 – 05/03

My Numbers: upper 50s, upper 50s, 70F, 70F, upper 70s, upper 70s and upper 70s.
NWS Numbers: Upper 50s, low 60s, low 70s, mid 70s, mid 70s, upper 70s and upper 70s.
Actual: 56F, 66F, 75F, 80F, 80F, 81F, and 81F.

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