Severe Weather Discussion for April 13 – 19, 2015

Severe Weather Discussion for April 13 – 19, 2015.
Issued: 04/13/2015.

Highlights:

– Widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of Oklahoma today and Tuesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday – Sunday. A few severe thunderstorms are possible.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 60s today, low 60s Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday, mid 70s Thursday, low 70s Friday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms: 15%

Discussion:

Upper system just west of the region will slowly move east through late Tuesday and pick up speed on Wednesday as up stream kicker moves into the SW U.S. Models indicate that this next system will also move slowly east across the state. This should keep rain chances going much of the week. Can’t say I like to put POPs in everyday but there seems to be decent rain chances and a reason to do so. Not sure this is a drought buster but will go a long ways for the state, especially if western OK gets predicted amounts.

Severe weather threat is on the low (slight risk) side of the scale all week. At this juncture, do not see anything significant and closed/cutoff lows are not that favorable for severe weather.

Temperatures are based closely to NWS. I think the EC is a little warm given all the precip expected this week.

Verification:

OKC Temps for 04/06 – 04/12 –

My Numbers: low 80s Monday, mid 80s Tuesday, mid 80s, mid 80s, upper 60s, mid 70s and upper 60s.
NWS Numbers: mid 80s,, mid 80s, mid 80s, mid 70s, mid 70s, mid 70s and mid 70s.
Actual: 82F, 78F, 75F, 75F, 71F, 74F and 81F.

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