Severe Weather Discussion for April 14 – 20, 2014

Severe Weather Discussion for April 14 – 20, 2014.
Issued:  04/13/2014.
 
Highlights:
 
–  Snow is likely for parts of the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma.  Accumulations will be limited but a few inches on grassy areas seems possible.
 
–  Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.  And, another chance late Saturday into Sunday.
 
–  Temperatures will be in the uppers 40 Monday, near 60F Tuesday, upper 60s Wednesday, mid 60s Thursday, upper 60s Friday, and mid-70s Saturday – Sunday.
 
Probabilities:
 
Winter Precip:  10%
 
Discussion:
 
Tornado drought is broken, confirmed tornado near Bray, Oklahoma, today.
 
Upper system responsible for the ongoing severe weather will shift east tonight as the main northern stream system swings through on Monday.  Very strong mid-April cold front is plunging southward across the state and this will usher in much colder temperatures for Monday.  A hard freeze is likely for a large part of Oklahoma by Tuesday morning.  Models indicated that a trace to 0.2 inches water equivalent snow will be possible in the panhandle and parts of northern Oklahoma.  Time of year does not favor much in the way of significant accumulations.
 
Much of Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet as the next northern stream system moves towards the area.  12z EC/GFS are in decent agreement with the amplification of this system as it approaches Oklahoma.  Current cold front will move into the Gulf, closing off moisture return the next few days.  Moisture will try to return ahead of the next upper system, but will struggle.  As such, showers and thunderstorms look to be primary impact as this system shifts quickly to the east.
 
A weak southern stream system will move into the southwest U.S. on Friday and slowly progress across the region during the weekend.  This system will have more moisture to work with than Thursday’s system but will also be a lot weaker.  As such, another  round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  Severe weather is not anticipated beyond today.
 
Models do indicate a northern stream system taking shape in the western U.S. @D10-11 (April 23-24).  Hi-Res ECMWF shows low 60s dewpoints in the state Wednesday (04/23) morning with the upper system near Nevada.  70F dewpoints in southern Texas and several more hours to advect moisture all point to severe weather chances.  Of course this is several days out and a rogue cold front could shut down the Gulf.
 
First guess at numbers was close to models, although I made some changes to the weekend.  Forecast leans strongly towards the EC for numbers, although I do think my Sunday numbers may be a little high.
 
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