Severe Weather Discussion for April 2-3, 2014

Severe Weather Discussion for April 2-3, 2014.
Issued:  04/02/2014.
 
Highlights:
 
–  Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of central/eastern Oklahoma.  Primary threat is large hail to baseball size.  Tornadoes as also possible, but significant activity is not expected.  The threat remains conditional, meaning we’re not sure if storms will develop.  However, if they do, severe storms are likely.
 
–  Significant severe weather day is likely across Arkansas and southern Missouri on Thursday.  This is outside the area I forecast, but worth noting here.  Severe thunderstorms will likely initiate in Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and move east.  Primary threats with any storm in Oklahoma will be large hail to baseball size and a few tornadoes.
 
Discussion:
 
Little change to the going forecast.  Mesoanalysis indicates a very volatile atmosphere across Oklahoma for early April.  CAPE values are in the 3500 J/Kg range with a spot of 4000 J/Kg in west-central OK.  CIN values are < 25 J/Kg, indicating an uncapped atmosphere.  The issue for convective initiation remains subtle to limited forcing.  HRRR and other convective allowing models hint at storms in northern OK, closer to the warm front.  Additionally, a storm or two along the dryline in western section.  Additionally, there has been a tendency for these models to develop storms in central Oklahoma.  Either way, will need to watch the entire area for storms development this afternoon.  Luckily it appears that storms will start after 4pm, but we’ll see there. 
 
Thursday looks quite ripe out east.  I haven’t had much time to do more than look at the SPC outlooks, but they’re hitting the potential hard.  I think Oklahoma will miss out on the really bad stuff but doesn’t mean storms won’t start in eastern OK (near Bartlesville to Durant).  I may issue a discussion tomorrow, assuming I have time.
 
Probabilities:
 
Risk area for any part of OK (valid:  04/03 Day 1):
 
–  Slight:  100%
–  Moderate:  75%
–  High:  0%
 
Chase Status:
 
–  Level 4 – but might go tonight if something is close.
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