Severe Weather Discussion for March 17 – 23, 2014

Severe Weather Discussion for March 17 – 23, 2014.
Issued:  03/16/2014.
 
Highlights:
 
–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon/evening – Sunday.  It will not rain the entire time, but chances persists those days.
 
–  Temperatures will be near 60F Monday, upper 60s Tuesday, low 60s Wednesday, low 70s Thursday, near 70F Friday, and low 60s Saturday-Sunday.
 
–  Spring starts on Thursday.
 
Probabilities:
 
–  Severe Thunderstorms:  5%
 
Discussion:
 
Upper system will continue to move east/southeast from the region as another 500mb shortwave trof moves into the region.  Shortwave ridging will dominate on Monday as this system moves southeast and then turns east just north of Oklahoma.  It will then move on east, with little impact to the state.  The greatest concern on Tuesday will be fire danger as the system departs.  Temperatures will cool Wednesday with northerly winds/Pacific surface high.  Another upper system will move through fast northwest flow around the weekend with several embedded waves in the southern jet.  Moisture will try to return on Tuesday but should be limited as the upper system passes to our north.  12z EC has a slight chance of showers for southern Oklahoma late Tuesday. 
 
After this system goes by, little happens weather wise until Friday.  Models indicate moisture will return to the state on Friday with a cold front pushing it back out on Saturday.  GFS and EC have differing solutions re precipitation, so just added pops for much of the weekend.  Models do not indicate widespread significant precip, but this far out last week, they didn’t show what happened yesterday either.  EC shows some CAPE in the state late Friday and SPC has noted the potential for storms at D6.  So, added low severe chances for the week.
 
EC and GFS greatly diverge beyond this week.  The GFS still wants to break down the western U.S. ridge, resulting in a more progressive pattern.  The EC builds the ridge across the western/central U.S. along with a large eastern U.S. low.  Not sure which to believe at this point and luckily beyond the scope of this forecast.
 
EC seems a little low on temperatures this week, so followed the NAM through Wednesday.  After that a blend of the GFS.  First guess at numbers were pretty good, although Thursday maybe a tad low.  Tornado drought is 222 days.
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