Winter Weather Discussion for December 5-8, 2013

Winter Weather Discussion for December 5-8, 2013.
Issued:  12/04/2013.
*Significant Winter Weather Event for Oklahoma and Texas*
*Prolong period of bitterly cold temperatures*
Highlights:
–  Ice Storm Warning for a small part of far southeast Oklahoma.
–  Winter Storm Warning for much of Oklahoma except northwest section.
–  Weather Weather Advisory for northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle.
–  Subfreezing temperatures are likely from Thursday – Tuesday.  Single digit and below 0F temperatures are possible Saturday and Sunday mornings.
–  Freezing rain is likely south of line from Pauls Valley to Poteau line.  Sleet and snow are likely from that line north to near I-40/I-44.  Then snow north of I-44.
Discussion:
No change to the prior forecast from yesterday and no need to rehash the meteorological conditions.
There are two caveats to the forecast.  The first caveat will be the potential for freezing rain Thursday morning across central/eastern Oklahoma.  Models are somewhat at odds on this occurrence but it seems likely to materialize.  As such, travel problems are likely during the day Thursday.  Precipitation will increase Thursday evening into Friday across much of central/eastern Oklahoma as the main wave ejects east.  This is caveat two, the going forecast has snow north of the I-44 corridor.  Recent model runs have shifted this south, which would bring the most intense snowfall south with it.  Currently the most intense snow is expected near I-44 with a mixed bag south to a Pauls Valley east to Poteau line.  South of this line, freezing rain is the primary type.
I may need to update the going forecast tomorrow to shift the precip areas, but for now, I’m staying with my prior forecasts.
An addition to yesterday’s forecast is the potential for Texas to get nailed.  Fort Worth NWS has issued a large winter storm watch and parts of it are now a warning.  The main threat is freezing rain, which should cause havoc in Dallas/Forth Worth.
All being said, I-35 from Dallas to Ponca City and I-40 from Oklahoma City to Memphis are bad places to travel late Thursday into at least early Saturday.
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