Severe Weather Discussion for May 31, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for May 31, 2013.
Issued:  05/31/2013.
 
*Significant Severe Weather Event Today*
 
Highlights:
 
–  Active severe weather day is likely across much of central and eastern Oklahoma.  Tornadoes, some possibly large, destructive hail to softball size, and winds to 80mph are likely.
 
–  This is a dangerous weather situation, prepare now.
 
Discussion:
 
A very busy day is likely across much of Oklahoma.  Many of the parameters are in-place for an active severe weather day across Oklahoma.  One key thing may be missing and could keep this from being a  high-end tornado day; that is low level winds.  Models show these winds in the 180 degree area but if they back to 160 degrees or so, then tornado potential will increase.  Instability will be extreme with CAPE values AOA 4500 J/kg across much of Oklahoma.  This will enable very strong updrafts, supportive of destructive hail.  The cap is much stronger today, with a Tc of 97F and lower in the atmosphere.  As such, explosive development is likely this afternoon.  HRRR and SPC WRF show storm initiation by 4pm across west and northwest Oklahoma.  Supercells will be favored given long curved hodograph.  The veer back veer seen on Wednesday is not present, which should allow good storm organization seen yesterday.  One issue yesterday was storm relative shear vectors oriented NW to SE, blowing rain cooled air into the updraft of the storm.
 
Despite all the stuff above, the forecast and models show a significant severe weather event today across much of central and eastern Oklahoma.
 
Probabilities:
 
None
 
Chase Status:
 
Level 4 – some are going.
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