Severe Weather Discussion for May 27 – June 2, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for May 27 – June 2, 2013.

Issued:  05/26/2013.

 Highlights:

 –  Active severe weather week ahead with severe thunderstorms possible Monday-Friday, potentially into the weekend.

 –  Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday-Tuesday, primarily in western Oklahoma.  The main threat will be large hail, but tornadoes are also possible.

 –  Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday-Friday across much of Oklahoma. 

 –  At the very least, thunderstorms are possible across much of Oklahoma Saturday and Sunday.

 –  Temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday-Tuesday, mid 80s Wednesday-Sunday.

 Probabilities:

 Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  50%

Storm Chase:  50%

 Discussion:

 Models agree that another western U.S. trof will develop and swing into the region @Wednesday.  The trof will then wrap up into a large closed low over the north-central U.S.  Models want to quickly open this system and progress it eastward by Friday.  Time of year, presence of strong winds aloft, and moisture will yield severe weather chances much of the week.  It is difficult to identify one day that has greater potential than any other.  However, placement of the trof will seem to favor Wednesday and Thursday for the higher potential.  A dryline, initially over the Texas/OK panhandles on Monday will be the main source of thunderstorms through Thursday.  This feature is indicated by the models to slowly drift eastward during the week.  By Friday, a cold front will drift into the state.  Models disagree on where this boundary will be during key periods Friday afternoon – Sunday.  Since the boundary will likely be strongly influenced by convection, tough to say what will end up happening with it.

 The issue within all of this is the potential for another medium-end event.  I do not like to forecast multiple high-end events close to each other, although it has been known to happen re blizzards.  For now, do not see a medium-end event Monday or Tuesday, but Wednesday is certainly in the offering.  May need to start discussions tomorrow.  Thursday seems to be the biggest concern right now, but once again tough to totally say either way. 

 Again this week, did not get fancy with numbers.  I’d think cooler temperatures are possible by the weekend depending on convective processes.  I elected to go with mid 80s and just take the hit if I’m wrong.

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