Severe Weather Discussion for March 25 – March 31, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for March 25 – March 31, 2013.
Issued:  03/24/2013.
Highlights:
–  Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Thursday-Sunday, a severe thunderstorm or two is seemingly possible.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 40s Monday, near 50F Tuesday,  upper 50s Wednesday, mid  60s Thursday-Friday, and near 70F Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma 15%
Discussion:
Temperatures will continue to be cold for a few more days as unseasonably cold surface high remains in the area.  Oklahoma City has not reached normal since Saturday the 16th and we’ll be below normal several more days.  The good news is that a very nice warm-up appears likely by mid-week.
Models are in good overall agreement through the period with the development of near zonal flow across the region.  A surface low is expected to develop by Thursday in the Texas panhandle as moisture returns northward.  Initial moisture return will be strongly modified, as such the quality will be limited.  Showers are possible as moisture advection gets going across the state.  This pattern will continue through the weekend.  The cold air should be displaced by Friday with a nice warm-up into the weekend.  Some convection is possible Saturday/Sunday.
Medium range models all hint at a southern stream system moving into the area late in the forecast period, early next one.  This system may have some decent moisture to work with and so higher-end severe chances are certainly possible.  Given that the GFS originally had this system moving into the area on Sunday, went ahead with low severe chances just in-case.  Models agree @Tuesday for this system to move into the state.  18z GFS shows a warm front over northern OK with a dryline in western sections.  Could make for an interesting day.
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