Severe Weather Discussion for March 11 – 17, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for March 11 – 17, 2013.
Issued:  03/10/2013.
Highlights:
–  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.
–  Temperatures will be in the low-50s Monday, near 60F Tuesday, mid 60s Wednesday, near 70F Thursday, mid 70s Friday – Saturday, and upper 60s Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
Discussion:
Quiet pattern this week with little in the way of sensible weather.  The most noticeable item will be the very nice warm-up by Thursday.  Models are in good agreement through Saturday regarding the 500mb pattern and subsequent surface features.  After a cool start to the week, cold surface high will shift east, allowing for southerly flow across the state.  Models keep a surface low northwest of the state Friday-Sunday, allowing for continued warming temperatures.  First glance at next weekend shows what should be a very pleasant few days across the state.
GFS has long hinted at a western U.S. trof moving towards the region @18th-19th.  This trend continues and to some extent the ECMWF also shows it.  00z EC showed it while the 12z has flipped.  Moisture return should start by Friday and EC does show a weak system nearby late Saturday.  Not going with POPs for now.  Does seem like a better chance at precip late Sunday should the GFS actually be correct.  Time of year certainly points to increasing severe chances just beyond the forecast period, so will need to watch the system due in @8-10 days.
Numbers this week aligned well with the NWS, so pretty much kept things about the same.  See no major airmass changes beyond the warm up on Wednesday into the weekend.  EC shows a cold front slipping into NW OK on Saturday, but that is low confidence and not going with it.
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