Severe Weather Discussion for February 25 – March 3, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for February 25 – March 3, 2013.
Issued:  02/24/2013.
Highlights:
–  Significant winter storm to impact Oklahoma tonight through Tuesday.  A rare late February high-end snow event.
–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Monday with thundersnow also possible.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 30s on Monday, upper 30s Tuesday, mid 40s Wednesday – Saturday, and low 50s Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Winter Precip;  > 75%
Discussion:
All forecasting efforts are focused on the significant and life-threatening winter storm to impact Oklahoma starting tonight and ending Tuesday.  Once this system moves by, a quick southern stream shortwave trof will skirt through the area on Thursday/Friday.  This system should have no moisture to work with and hence only produce some clouds.
Eastern U.S. longwave trof should keep northerly flow across the region and hence cold temperatures for late February.  Another fascinating aspect of this is the 540 line plunging into the Gulf by Friday.
NWS numbers look good and I ran with them, only a few minor modifications.  I lowered Monday’s high, even  though the low-40s represents the morning temperature.  I think it is important to note how cold it will be tomorrow afternoon.  I’ll take a hit on that number.
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