Severe Weather Discussion for February 11 – 17, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for February 11 – 17, 2013.
Issued:  02/10/2013.
Highlights:
–  Snow is likely for parts of Oklahoma on Tuesday, most likely area is west-central, northwest, and the panhandle where a winter storm watch is posted with 4-6 inches possible.  Elsewhere snow of 1-2 inches is possible along the I-44 area.  Showers are also likely southeast of the winter storm watch, with much needed precipitation statewide.
–  A slight chance of snow is also forecast for Friday.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 50s Monday, mid 30s Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, low 50s Thursday, near 40F Friday, mid 40s Saturday, and near 50F Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Winter Precipitation:  30%
Discussion:
Today will likely be the warmest of the week as colder weather is on the way.  And, we must remember that the over-sized rat did forecast an early spring so who knows.  Models in decent agreement on the weather features for this week.  Some of the specifics are iffy, especially re the snowstorm on Tuesday.  Models have trended warmer the past few runs and this along with recent tendencies to overdo QPF keep my excitement low.  NWS has a winter storm watch post for northwest OK and looks like that is the best spot.  Models tend to agree that is the best area for snow.  Upper system should move over the state on Tuesday with nice weather Wednesday and Thursday.
A large eastern U.S. longwave trof will develop by mid-week with a small shortwave trof moving southeast over the state Friday.  Models develop some QPF with this trof, so have added that to the forecast and lower temperatures a little bit.  Luckily there isn’t much cold air in Canada or mid-week would be brutal across the region.  As it is, temperatures will be below normal much of the week.  I went lower of temperatures than the going numbers, although skies should be clear Saturday and Sunday.
Four years ago today, a rare February EF-4 tornado hit Lone Grove, killing 8.
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