Severe Weather Discussion for January 21 – 27, 2013

Severe Weather Discussion for January 21 – 27, 2013.
Issued:  01/20/2013.
Highlights:
–  Temperatures will be in the low 40s on Monday, low 50s Tuesday, mid 60s Wednesday, near 60F Thursday (could be much warmer), mid 40s Friday, low 50s Saturday, and mid 50s Sunday.
Probabilities:
None
Discussion:
Eastern U.S. longwave trof will dominate the mid-level pattern this week.  Two shortwave trofs traversing the mean position will occur this week, both resulting in cold fronts moving through Oklahoma.  No precipitation is expected with either cold front.  Thursday is the most iffy day regarding temperatures and bust potential is high.  GFS argues for low 50s along with ensemble members.  The NAM/EC both argue for low 70s, near record temperatures for this time of year.  Went middle of the road but noting the potential for much warmer temperatures should the cold front not move too fast.
EC/GFS show a southern stream shortwave trof moving towards the region @01/29.  Prior eastern U.S. longwave trof is likely to wipe the Gulf, so not sure if decent moisture can return ahead of this system.  If moisture can return northward, some much needed rainfall may occur.  GFS is pretty aggressive with QPF, but not convinced re 75F dewpoints in the Gulf for late January.  EC shows moisture return also but ends just before the time in question.
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