Severe Weather Discussion for December 24 – 30, 2012.

Severe Weather Discussion for December 24 – 30, 2012.
Issued:  12/23/2012.
Highlights:
–  Snow is likely across much of Oklahoma late Monday through Wednesday morning.  Amounts of at least 3-6 inches are likely with potentially more significant amounts.
–  Additional snow is possible on Friday, with amounts 2-4 inches possible, mainly in eastern Oklahoma.
–  Temperatures will be near 40F Monday, upper 20s Tuesday, near 20 Wednesday, low 30s Thursday, mid 30s Friday, near 40F Saturday and  Sunday.
–  Merry Christmas!
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  50%
Discussion:
Very complex forecast the next few days and made worse that the highest impacts are likely on Christmas Day.  00z NAM/GFS not helping matters.  All models agree that a southern stream shortwave trof will move towards the area on Monday and across on Tuesday as it amplifies.  It will slow down some in the latter stages.  Arctic air will plunge southward on Monday and move into Oklahoma early Christmas Day.  Models want to hang up the Arctic air with a surface low in eastern Oklahoma along with intense WAA.  This is where things get messy with regards to expected precipitation type and amount.  The GFS is the most consistent thing going but even it is higher than the ECMWF, which the latter nails southeast Oklahoma.  I’m not convinced the surface Arctic air will hang up like the models show, so would not be surprised to get other precipitation types than snow.  Ongoing coordination yields sleet likely for eastern Oklahoma and can’t disagree as cold air deepens from the surface up.  Freezing rain would also be possible in these areas.  Farther west I think snow is the main type for Oklahoma City, although an hour or so of sleet is probably a good idea.
Despite which model verifies, persons are urged to monitor traffic and weather conditions on Christmas Day.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will be quiet.  Another system will approach the area on Friday and looks like more snow is in the offering.  I’m not buying the no moisture thing as 65F dewpoints are lurking in the Gulf.  This system moves on by and things are quiet Saturday and Sunday.
In no way did I get fancy with temps, in-general went below MOS throughout the week.  Arctic airmasses do not modify like the models want and snow will keep us cold.
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