Severe Weather Discussion for December 3 – 9, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for December 3 – 9, 2012.
Issued:  12/03/2012.
Highlights:
–  Thunderstorms are possible in southeast Oklahoma later today.  Another chance of showers is possible on Friday.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 70’s Monday, mid 60’s Tuesday, upper 60s Wednesday – Thursday, upper 50’s Friday, low 60s Saturday, and low 70s Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
Discussion:
Quiet week expected with a chance of thunderstorms later today a shortwave trof passes to the north.  A cold front will move through the area but do little to reduce temperatures.  A warming trend begins on Wednesday.  Another cold front is expected Friday, this one seems to have a little more bite to it.  Temperatures recover over the weekend.
00z EC/GFS both are targeting a rather substantial cold front between late Sunday and early Tuesday.  This was has at least Canadian origins, maybe even some Arctic air.  This seems to occur as a southern stream system digs just to the west of the region.  The EC is faster with the system than the GFS, which is a change from the runs yesterday.  It certainly appears that some interesting weather is on-tap for next week, at the very least much colder.  We’ll see if the atmosphere does what the models think it should.
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