Severe Weather Discussion for October 29 – November 4, 2012.

Severe Weather Discussion for October 29 – November 4, 2012.
Issued:  10/28/2012.
Highlights:
–  Hurricane Sandy to cause significant impacts along the northeast coast, but likely felt well beyond this area.
–  Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday for Oklahoma.  A severe thunderstorm or two seems possible.
–  Temperatures will be in the upper 60s on Monday, low 70s Tuesday, mid 70s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday – Saturday, and mid 60s Sunday.
–  Time change Sunday 11/04 at 2am, move clocks back one hour.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  20%
–  Tropical Development/Impacts:  > 75%
Discussion:
Little to talk about across the region this  week.  Area will be influenced by a mid level ridge, with warming temperatures during the week.  The main weather influence for the region is shown by the GFS/ECMWF to move into the area on Saturday.  Models are at odds on this system with the EC stronger and farther south.  The GFS has the low in the northern U.S. with trofing south-southwestward.  For now, I’ll insert storm chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  As a nod to the EC, I’ve gone with low severe weather chances.
Not much I can say about Sandy that isn’t being said by the NWS and/or national media right now.  While Sandy may actually make landfall as a post-tropical system, doesn’t really matter.  Sandy is a large tropical system and will bring significant impacts to the northeast U.S.  Secondary impacts will likely be felt well outside of the impact zone.
Didn’t get fancy with temperatures, looks like a very nice mid-fall week for Oklahoma.  Not the same for the northeast U.S.
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