Severe Weather Discussion for October 15 – 21, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for October 15 – 21, 2012.
Issued:  10/14/2012.
Highlights:
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday-Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, mid 70s Thursday, low 70s Friday, upper 70s Saturday, and low 80s Sunday.
Probabilities:
Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
Discussion:
00z/06z medium range models are in very good agreement regarding the forecast this week.  Little in the way of sensible weather is expected.  An airmass change is about it on Wednesday.
Weak northwest flow aloft will prevail the next few days as a northern stream shortwave trof digs southeast by late Tuesday.  This system is forecast by the models to wrap up into a large closed low over the central U.S.  This system will then move eastward, leaving the east coast by late Saturday.  Pacific cold front, associated with this system, will move through Oklahoma on Wednesday.  Southerly flow will try to return ahead of this Monday/Tuesday with some moisture return.  However, moisture is expected to be limited and the cold front should precede the upper system.  As such, no rainfall is expected on Wednesday or even this week.
Models do hint at a southwest U.S. system @Monday/Tuesday next week, so rain chances may return just beyond this forecast period.
Last tornado in Oklahoma continues to be May 29th, putting the state 138 days without one.
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