Severe Weather Discussion for October 13, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for October 13, 2012.
Issued:  10/13/2012.
Highlights:
–  Active severe weather day is likely across Oklahoma.  Primary threats are tornadoes, destructive hail, and wind.
Discussion:
Complex setup continues for the remainder of today.  Models are of little help and there seems to be no need to rehash prior discussion re the synoptic setup.  The setup remains the same, the issue continues to be convection prior to the main event.  There are two schools of thought right now 1) a few supercell thunderstorms will develop across western Oklahoma this afternoon with associated high-impact threats or 2) widespread severe thunderstorms will develop followed by a significant squall line.  There will still be impacts from these storms but the tornado potential will decrease.  Along with that is that QLCS storms are likely with embedded supercells/tornadoes.
Temperatures are warming in southwest Oklahoma right now and I have to wonder if the prior storms/current cloud cover is doing us a favor.  October ground is still warm and takes little sunlight to reach low 80s.  This is noted in southwest OK where temperatures are already in the upper 70s.  There continues to be hit/miss showers develop but these are likely above the cap and seemingly having little negative impacts on the surface.
Setup appears good enough for a chase, so we’ll spin the wheel and see what happens.  SPC Day 1 at 8am was great and certainly paints the current picture well.  A short-fused upgrade to a moderate may be necessary, just tough to call right now.
Probabilities:
None
Chase Status:
Level 1 – Heading west or southwest, not sure which yet.  That decision will be made when we depart at 1:30pm.
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