Severe Weather Discussion for October 8 – 14, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for October 8 – 14, 2012.
Issued:  10/07/2012.
–  Severe thunderstorms are possible across Oklahoma on Friday and Saturday.  Thunderstorms are seemingly possible late Thursday.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 60s on Monday, mid 70s Tuesday, upper 70s Wednesday, low 80s Thursday-Friday, mid 80s Saturday, and upper 70s Sunday.
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  40%
–  Storm Chase:  15%
Finally the potential for action around Oklahoma.  The tornado drought stands at 131 days, far from the record though.  Even though the outlook for Friday/Saturday is far from certain, there is at least potential in the state as a southern stream closed low moves moves into the region.
Models are in good agreement regarding the overall pattern this week, a few differences do exist.  During the first part of the week, the atmosphere will flatten out some and the prior cold airmass will shift eastward.  By Thursday a closed low is expected to move onshore and translate rather quickly towards the region.  Southerly flow will return on Tuesday on the backside of the cold surface high.  Moisture return will initially consist of modified Gulf air but more robust moisture return appears possible by Thursday.  Models currently forecast the system to influence Oklahoma mostly Friday night, which is ill-timed for significant severe weather.  Either way, wind fields will increase across the region late Thursday into Saturday.  This will overtop an increasingly moist airmass and at the very least lead to an unstable atmosphere.  As such, thunderstorms are expected late Thursday through Saturday.  Current models have the dryline progressing eastward on Saturday, with mainly eastern Oklahoma under the threat.  However, given that model changes are likely, I’m covering the state both days.
A medium-end event doesn’t appear in the offering right now, but it certainly is possible given seasonable moisture return/surface heating.  Too many questionable factors right now, but special discussions could be needed.  For now, low-end severe thunderstorms are the most likely impacts along with much needed rainfall.
Didn’t get too fancy with temperatures.   I did go above MOS for Saturday given possible dryline passage.
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