Severe Weather Discussion for September 24 – 30, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for September 24 – 30, 2012.
Issued:  09/23/2012.
Highlights:
–  Chance of thunderstorms across northern/western Oklahoma Wednesday/Thursday.  Then continuing the chance across parts of the state Friday, ending Saturday.  Severe thunderstorm chances are low.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday, low 90s Tuesday-Wednesday, upper 80s Thursday, low 80s Friday, mid 80s Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
Discussion:
A pattern shift appears likely this week, albeit brief.  The persistent ridge along the west coast will weaken and allow a southern stream short wave trof to move onshore Tuesday.  This feature will progress slowly east during the week.  The initial influence on Oklahoma will be to increase wind and eventually moisture.  The former will lead to near critical fire weather conditions on Monday.  By Wednesday, rain chances go up in northern/western Oklahoma and continue for a few days.  Best chance for rain in central Oklahoma appears to be Thursday and Friday.  By Saturday the upper system translates east.  No airmass changes expected with this system so lowered temperatures mainly due to clouds/rain, hopeful at least.
Models disagree beyond Sunday on what the pattern will do.  00z models favored more western U.S. trofing while the 12z GFS rebuilds the persistent ridge.
Temperatures looks to remain warm the first part of this week and hopefully offset some by clouds/rain the latter part.  Warmed things back up for the weekend.
Nadine came back from the dead this morning, sigh.  It is way out near the Azores and no threat to the U.S.  Although it will be with us another five days now.  No other activity at this time in the tropics.
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