Severe Weather Discussion for September 17 – 23, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for September 17 – 23, 2012.
Issued:  09/17/2012.
Highlights:
–  Small chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.  Again, Thursday and Friday.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday, upper 70s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, mid 80 Thursday-Friday, near 80 Saturday, and mid 80s Sunday.
–  Fall starts Saturday morning.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
–  Tropical Development:  20%
Discussion:
After taking a bath on temperatures last Thursday, this week looks to be a little easier.  A rather amplified pattern is forecast to develop this week, with all models agreeing.  The end result will be northwest to northerly flow for Oklahoma much of the week as a longwave trof develops just to our east.  To our west a rather amplified ridge will develop, extending well into Canada.  Models want to show a Rex block by next weekend, but we’ll see.  There is a lot of disagreement beyond D5, so forecast confidence next week is rather low.  For now, there is enough confidence on a cold front expected Monday afternoon across Oklahoma.  Given expected ample sunshine, temperatures should recover into the mid-80s ahead of the front.  Thunderstorms are possible along the front and an outside chance of a severe thunderstorm are two.
Tuesday will be a little cooler behind the front and temperatures rebound by Wednesday.  Model issues really show up by Friday.  I went ahead and brought another cold front through, but only cooled us off a little Saturday and then return to near normal on Sunday.  All in all, a pleasant late summer week is ahead.
NHC is watching two systems, but neither show much chance of developing.
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