Severe Weather Discussion for September 17 – 23, 2012.
– Small chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Again, Thursday and Friday.
– Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday, upper 70s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, mid 80 Thursday-Friday, near 80 Saturday, and mid 80s Sunday.
– Fall starts Saturday morning.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Tropical Development: 20%
After taking a bath on temperatures last Thursday, this week looks to be a little easier. A rather amplified pattern is forecast to develop this week, with all models agreeing. The end result will be northwest to northerly flow for Oklahoma much of the week as a longwave trof develops just to our east. To our west a rather amplified ridge will develop, extending well into Canada. Models want to show a Rex block by next weekend, but we’ll see. There is a lot of disagreement beyond D5, so forecast confidence next week is rather low. For now, there is enough confidence on a cold front expected Monday afternoon across Oklahoma. Given expected ample sunshine, temperatures should recover into the mid-80s ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are possible along the front and an outside chance of a severe thunderstorm are two.
Tuesday will be a little cooler behind the front and temperatures rebound by Wednesday. Model issues really show up by Friday. I went ahead and brought another cold front through, but only cooled us off a little Saturday and then return to near normal on Sunday. All in all, a pleasant late summer week is ahead.
NHC is watching two systems, but neither show much chance of developing.by