Severe Weather Discussion for September 10th – 16th, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for September 10th – 16th, 2012.
Issued:  09/09/2012.
Highlights:
–  Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday through Saturday morning across the state.  Severe thunderstorms should be limited but as with last week a few are possible.  A few thunderstorms are possible across far western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday-Wednesday, upper 90s Thursday, upper 70s Friday, low 80 Saturday, and mid 80s Sunday.
–  NHC is watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Tropical Development:  15%
Discussion:
As with last week, the first part of this week will be somewhat quiet.  The latter part will get a little busier.
Prior cold front will wash out by mid-week and allow moisture to return northward on Wednesday.  Before that time, temperatures will warm back into the mid-90s amid low dewpoints.  Wildfire concerns are noted Monday and especially Tuesday across parts of Oklahoma.  By Wednesday, a shortwave trof moves along the northern U.S. border and pushes a cold front towards the state on Thursday.  GFS is more amplified with this system than the ECMWF.  The former has the front moving through Oklahoma City during the afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this boundary late Thursday as it moves through the state continuing into early Saturday.  Given that the front may slow, I’ve increased temperatures a little on Thursday.  Conditions aren’t exactly like last Friday but exceptional drought does continue across parts of the state.
The cold front will make for a very nice late winter day on Friday into the weekend.  Temperatures will be kept on the cool side, but warming through Sunday.  Seems fitting since the Fair starts on Thursday.  Temperatures are modulated upwards a little for the early part of the week and kept with the models Friday-Sunday.
NHC is watching an area in the eastern Atlantic, so we’ll see what happens with it.
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