Severe Weather Discussion for September 3 – 9, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for September 3 – 9, 2012.
Issued:  09/02/2012.
Highlights:
–  Chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.  One or two severe thunderstorms are certainly possible.
–  Temperatures will be 104F Monday-Tuesday, 100F Wednesday-Thursday, mid 90s Friday, and mid 80s Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Tropical Development:  10%
Discussion:
Upper ridge will shift back over the region for a few days this week.  This will lead to hot temperatures through Thursday.  Northwest flow will develop late in the week.  This will allow a shortwave trof to amplify as it move southeast north of the region.  Tough call on how much rain we might get as much of the upper forcing will be just north of Oklahoma.  However, there should be a decent chance of rain ahead of a cold front.  A break in the heat looks likely as the cold front plows through Oklahoma late Friday.  More seasonable temperatures look to be in the offering during the weekend.  00z ECMWF offered a pattern change in the 8-10 day range but that vanished in the 12z run.  Although such an occurrence would be expected this time of year.
Little in the tropics immediately threatening the U.S. so the percentage is kept low.
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