Severe Weather Discussion for August 27 – September 2, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for August 27 – September 2, 2012.
Issued:  08/26/2012.
Highlights:
–  Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by landfall on Tuesday.  Big questions as to where it will land, but current thinking is near New Orleans, give or take 40 miles either side.
–  Slight chance of thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma on Monday.
–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible in eastern Oklahoma Friday-Sunday.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 90s Monday – Tuesday, mid 90s Wednesday-Thursday, and near 90F Friday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Tropical Development:  > 75%
Discussion:
Forecast efforts really on Isaac this afternoon, so not going to type much of a discussion.  After the weak mid-level low leaves Oklahoma late Monday, hot and dry conditions will prevail as strong upper ridge moves into the region.  Before that happens, there is a chance for thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma.
Tuesday-Thursday will be hot and muggy, which is typical this time of year.  Issue then becomes late week when the remnants of Isaac may get close enough to impact Oklahoma.  Whether or not Isaac moves directly over Oklahoma, there seems good reason to add pops for eastern Oklahoma at least.  The EC, currently the eastern most model, brings part of Isaac into Arkansas.  Some of the other models bring Isaac directly over Oklahoma.  So, think that low pops are warranted next weekend and will take the hit if we get no rain.
Didn’t get fancy with temperatures, appears somewhat cut and dry.
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