Severe Weather Discussion for August 20 – 26, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for August 20 – 26, 2012.
Issued:  08/19/2012.
Highlights:
–  Thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, across mainly western/central Oklahoma.  Another chance of thunderstorms is possible late Thursday into Friday.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday – Tuesday, upper 80s Wednesday-Friday, and near 90F Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Tropical Development:  20%
Discussion:
Models in good agreement for the week and show northwest flow continuing for a few more days.  By the middle of the week, the pattern becomes progressive and the upper ridge starts to flatten some.  The main influences for Oklahoma will be another cold front early week with a decent chance for thunderstorms across western/central Oklahoma.  After that system moves by, the next major player moves into the region late Thursday into Friday.  Another chance of rain will be present across the state.  No cooling is indicated behind the Friday system and so a warmer weekend is on-tap.  However, even near 90F/low 90s is good for this time of year and continues the startling change from a few weeks ago.
NHC is watching an area in the eastern Atlantic, which may develop the next few days.  It is at least a week off from the U.S. if it can hold together.
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