Severe Weather Discussion for August 13 – 20, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for August 13 – 20, 2012.
Issued:  08/12/2012.
Highlights:
–  Showers and thunderstorms are likely late Monday – Thursday, best chances appear late Monday into early Tuesday and again late Wednesday into Thursday.  Some severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds the primary threat, although a few large hail events are possible.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday – Wednesday, low 90s Thursday, near 90F Friday, and upper 80s Saturday – Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Tropical Development:  20%
Discussion:
After the past two weeks of extreme temperatures, it looks like the furnace gets turned down this week.  Models are in good agreement that a eastern U.S. trof, part of an eastern Canadian low will cause northwest flow across Oklahoma.  Several cold fronts will move through the state with the biggie late Thursday into Friday.  Even with the very warm ground, temperatures in the 80s appear possible as decent cool air advection sets in and the subtropical ridge is displaced westward.  Another benefit of northwest flow is storm chances, which appear a good part of the week.  Not sure how much of Oklahoma will get much needed rain, but we’ll take any that we can get.  Fire weather conditions look to relax some this week, although will have to monitor for the stronger wind/low RH days that may pop up.    This pattern continues all week and see no reason to get fancy with temperatures, the going numbers look fine to me.  GFS wants to create a precip bomb next Monday 8/21 in northeast Oklahoma, but I’m not so sure on that one.
After a week of Ernesto and Florence, there are two areas NHC is watching.  Neither of them have much development potential right now, but the peak of tropical season starts next week.

 

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