Severe Weather Discussion for July 23-29, 2012.
– Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday thru Friday.
– Temperatures will be near 102F Monday-Tuesday, 100F Wednesday, upper 90s Thursday-Saturday, and near 100F Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%
Models are in good agreement on weakening the upper ridge this week and then building it back in towards the end of the forecast period. A slight break from the heat is expected Wednesday-Saturday when the ridge has shifted eastward. ECMWF shows a weak low moving into Oklahoma on Thursday but not sure temperatures will respond like it shows. So, decided to stick with the GFS through that time period. Either way, a typical mid-summer week is scheduled.
Not much happening in the tropics right now, although NHC is watching an area near Florida.by