Severe Weather Discussion for July 23-29, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for July 23-29, 2012.
Issued:  07/22/2012.

Highlights:

–  Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday thru Friday.

–  Temperatures will be near 102F Monday-Tuesday, 100F Wednesday, upper 90s Thursday-Saturday, and near 100F Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
–  Tropical Development:  5%

Discussion:

Models are in good agreement on weakening the upper ridge this week and then building it back in towards the end of the forecast period.  A slight break from the heat is expected Wednesday-Saturday when the ridge has shifted eastward.  ECMWF shows a weak low moving into Oklahoma on Thursday but not sure temperatures will respond like it shows.  So, decided to stick with the GFS through that time period.  Either way, a typical mid-summer week is scheduled.

Not much happening in the tropics right now, although NHC is watching an area near Florida.

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