Severe Weather Discussion for July 9 – 15, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for July 9 – 15, 2012.
Issued:  07/08/2012.
Highlights:
–  Showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of Oklahoma through Tuesday.  Slight chance of showers eastern Oklahoma Wednesday-Friday.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 90s Monday-Friday, and mid 90s Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
–  Tropical Development:  5%
Discussion:
Persistent mid-level ridge will shift westward early this week and allow heights to lower across Oklahoma.  This should take the edge off the very hot temperatures the past few weeks.  The passage of a cold front, driven by a medium-wavelength trof over the northeast, will assist and maybe provide rainfall for some areas.  The better news is temperatures will likely be in the low 90s much of the week.  By the weekend the ECMWF shows the ridge building back east while the GFS isn’t as aggressive.  I went ahead and bumped up temperatures for the weekend to what is climo.  Current climo temp is 93F, heading for 95F in early August.  All in all, not a bad early summer week.
Nothing brewing in the tropics as of yet this month.
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