Severe Weather Discussion for June 11 – 17, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for June 11 – 17, 2012.
Issued:  06/10/2012.
Highlights:
–  Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday in eastern Oklahoma and again Tuesday in the far western panhandle.
–  Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon in southern Oklahoma and across much of the state on Wednesday.
–  A slight chance of thunderstorms appears possible Thursday – Saturday across parts of Oklahoma.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday – Tuesday, near 80F on Wednesday, mid 80s Thursday, upper 80s Friday-Saturday, and near 90F Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  20%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Tropical Development:  < 5%
Discussion:
Upper system will move northwest of Oklahoma late today, a common theme this year, and push a cold front into the state.  By Monday morning this front is expected to be just northwest of I-44.  The cold front will push slowly south during the day and be the focus for severe thunderstorms late Monday, primarily in eastern Oklahoma.  The front should be south of the state on Tuesday and then return northward on Wednesday.  As such thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday, likely widespread.  By Thursday the front will be long gone and short-wave ridging will develop.  Models develop another western U.S. trof but keep the southern end in the southwest U.S.  Despite ridging aloft, heights don’t get much over 582dm and models do show precip in far eastern Oklahoma and far western panhandle Thursday-Sunday.  As such, put in low POP’s for this time period.
Storm season appears to end quite benign, as has been the theme the past 45 days.  Despite this, we still racked up 52 tornadoes so far this year, but only three in May (1 May 1st and 2 May 29th).
Temperatures appear very close to climo this week although did go a little below on Wednesday, given last week.  Also, I may be a little warm on Sunday, but 90F isn’t too bad given this time of year.  So far 2012 has been much nicer than 2011, I hope it continues.
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