Severe Weather Discussion for May 7 – 13, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for May 7 – 13, 2012.
Issued:  05/07/2012.
Highlights:
–  Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible in southern Oklahoma Tuesday-Thursday.  And, again in eastern Oklahoma on Sunday.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 70s Monday – Tuesday, mid 70s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday-Friday, near 80F Saturday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
Discussion:
Subtle and somewhat benign weather pattern this week as a weakening southwest U.S. southern stream shortwave trof translates slowly eastward during the week.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement that this system will move through central/southern Texas, with limited impacts on Oklahoma.  Showers are possible any given day this week, with the most likely chance Tuesday-Thursday.  Severe weather chances look quite low for this time of year and due mostly to the unseasonable cool air that as overspread much of the region.
Models do show a stronger western U.S. trof developing in the 9-11 day range but this time period has been very unreliable owing to the North Atlantic blocking pattern.  Hopefully the current progs will hold and stronger flow aloft will develop mid next week.
Did not get fancy with temperatures.  After a very warm two weeks, we’ll take a week off from the heat.
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