Severe Weather Discussion for March 26 – April 1, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for March 26 – April 1, 2012.
Issued:  03/24/2012.
Highlights:
–  A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday – Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 80s Monday-Thursday, and upper 70s Friday-Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
Discussion:
Atypical March temperatures will continue another week as unseasonably moist air continues to reside across Oklahoma.  Models agree that the atmospheric pattern will be rather benign across much of the lower 48, a pattern typically found in late May.  Storms chances are low but the GFS does show periodic QPF during the week.  Given very moist conditions, surface dewpoints rising to the low 60s and 850mb dewpoints @5C, a few thunderstorms are seemingly possible.  Lack of any speed or directional shear should preclude a severe threat.
GFS and to some extend the ECMWF develop a western U.S. trof by late in the weekend.  The GFS has been rather consistent with this feature but the ultimate evolution of it remains iffy.  The GFS tries to bring in a full latitude positively tilted trof around the 2nd/3rd.  The EC is much less amplified with this system.  Time of year would certainly argue in the GFS’s favor but the current pattern would argue for the EC.  Either way, said feature is beyond the scope of this forecast and will defer one week on it.  If a medium-end event develops, special discussions will be issued.  Time of year would favor a medium-end event, but still iffy on that one.
I didn’t get fancy at all with temperatures, in fact went off the NWS for most of them this week.  See no reason for an airmass change and model progged dewpoints provide some confidence that temperatures will at least start out mild each day.  Normal high this time of year is 66F.
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