Severe Weather Discussion for February 6 – 12, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for February 6 – 12, 2012.
Issued:  02/05/2012.
Highlights:
–  Showers are possible across the southeast 2/3rds of the state on Tuesday.  Snow is possible in the northwest and the panhandle.  Significant impacts are not expected.
–  Additional rain changes exist for Thursday and Friday, best potential will be in southern Oklahoma.
–  Temperatures will be in the mid 50s Monday, mid 40s Tuesday, low 40s on Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday – Friday, low 50s Saturday and upper 50s Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  10%
Discussion:
Persistent western U.S. ridge will continue this week in a quasi rex block.  Weakening closed low, which undercut said ridge, will shift slowly eastward as it dampens.  While moisture is limited across the region, there should be enough to generate some light precipitation across the region.  Temperatures will be cold enough in the northwest for snow with rain elsewhere.  Another closed low will undercut the ridge and end up heading through Mexico by mid week.  Another upper system is progged to round the top of the ridge and dive southward and phase with the closed low over Mexico.  Not sure this will be the case, but the GFS seems to think it is a good idea.  ECMWF drops the circulation of the Gulf but either way, precip chances look slim but not zero.  Large closed low over eastern Canada seems to keep a steady supply of cool air moving into the region.  As such, temperatures will be lower this week than the past few but also much closer to normal.
Overall a quiet week is in-store for the region.  Models want to break down the western U.S. ridge later in the forecast period but I’m not convinced of that solution given how long the ridge has been around.
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