Severe Weather Discussion for December 26, 2011 – January 1, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for December 26, 2011 – January 1, 2012.
Issued:  12/26/2011.
Highlights:
–  Temperatures will be in the upper 40s Monday, mid 50s Tuesday, upper 50s Wednesday, near 60F Thursday, and low 60s Friday-Saturday, and mid 50s Sunday.
–  Happy New Year!
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  < 5%
Discussion:
Beautiful early winter week ahead for Oklahoma with temperatures a little above normal area wide.  Upper low that has been wobbling in west Texas the past few days is slowly lifting eastward and will be out of the region by late Tuesday.  After that the flow goes zonal with little in the way of impacts in Oklahoma.  Models show a few wind shifts nearby, but nothing significant.  ECMWF does show an eastern U.S. longwave trof developing just beyond this forecast period.  This would seemingly cool things off significantly if cold air builds in Canada.  At this time, precipitation looks nil across the region so all POPs zero through Sunday. GFS is a few days later regarding the eastern U.S. trof, so we’ll see.  Luckily I don’t have to make a call at this point.  However, Sunday could see a cool-off.
Went with GFS MOS through Saturday and then below on Sunday which seems in-keeping with forecasts to the northeast.
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