Severe Weather Discussion for December 5 – 11, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for December 5 – 11, 2011.
Issued:  12/04/2011.
Highlights:
–  Showers are likely in the southeast part of Oklahoma tonight into Monday.
–  A dusting of snow is possible in western Oklahoma on Monday with flurries elsewhere.  The panhandle stands the best chance of snow with 1-2 inches likely.
–  Temperatures will be in the low 40s Monday, mid 30s Tuesday, low 40s Wednesday, mid 40s Thursday-Saturday, and upper 40s Sunday.
Probabilities:
–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  10%
Discussion:
The great snow storm of 2011 take three appears to be an illusion as all models have converged on higher QPF remaining well south of Oklahoma.   The displacement will also remove the QPF from the colder air, thereby not supporting snow in Oklahoma City or Tulsa.  Snow is likely in the Oklahoma panhandle where a Winter Weather Advisory is posted.
Current system prompting lots of showering activity in Texas and northeast as it shears eastward across the state.  This system will have little influence beyond today as it enters confluent flow and dampens.  Next southern stream shortwave trof will linger over New Mexico, which is progged to bring snow to the Oklahoma panhandle Monday into the evening hours.  This may also bring some snow to western Oklahoma, where a dusting is possible.  Farther east, flurries are about it.  The system will race northeast as the large closed low over northern Canada strengthens and a shortwave trof dives south over Wisconsin/Minnesota by midweek.  The main influence on Oklahoma will be a cold air pump that will continue much of the week.  This will keep temperatures below normal all week, with at least a few days in the 30s.  It will also usher in the coldest morning of the season when temperatures will likely reach the upper teens.  Mid-level pattern starts to flatten out by late week with a warming trend expected across Oklahoma.  No appreciable precipitation is expected after Tuesday across the state.  This would seemingly break the weekly rainfall events we’ve seen for the past month.  On the other hand, these have greatly reduced drought conditions across the eastern half of the state.  GFS does show a shortwave trof moving across Kansas next Sunday.  It does not develop QPF with this system and moisture appears to be lacking at this time.  However, should the system amplify or slow down, moisture may be available when it traverses near the region.  Either way, it is beyond this forecast period.
Generally went below MOS forecasts for the week, very much inline with NWS Norman.  Models are in decent agreement all week on the 500mb pattern.
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