Severe Weather Discussion for September 12 – 18, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for September 12 – 18, 2011.
Issued:  09/11/2011.

Highlights:

–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday.  Slight chance of showers Saturday and Sunday.

–  Temperatures will be in the mid-90s Monday-Tuesday, mid-80s Wednesday, mid-70s Thursday, upper 70s Friday, and low 80s Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Tropical Development:  15%

Discussion:

Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern this week, oddly so given the somewhat weak influences in the area.  The stories this week are warmth, a cool front, then a cold front, and then maybe just maybe some rain.

Upper ridge will remain over the region through Tuesday resulting in a spike in temperatures both days.  This has a northern stream shortwave trof curves out a larger trof in the northeast.  The initial shortwave trof will push a cool front into the state, which should stall in southern sections.  By Thursday a closed low translates into the mean longwave position resulting in a stronger cold front into the region.  The latter of these boundaries will be in-place as a weak shortwave trof moves eastward towards the region.  This should provide a favorable upslope pattern with southerly winds in Texas.  The GFS is very excited about precipitation on Thursday showing 1-2 inches across a large part of Oklahoma.  No doubt this would be welcomed rainfall and far more than received over the past few months.  However, impacts from Nate do worry me as it has modified the southern Gulf and some trajectories.  While I do think rain is likely Thursday, I’m hopeful the GFS is correct.  It hasn’t been all that consistent with amounts, so we’ll see.  Southwest trof weakens and shortwave trof moves across the northern U.S. which may result in a weak cool front late in the week.  For now, not gonna worry about that one.

We are still in peak tropical season, although Maria seems to be the last thing spinning for now.  We’ll see if another system develops this week.  Not sure what we’ll get after Nate sitting in the Gulf for several days.

MOS was pretty good on temperatures and did not deviate all that much.  Very dry ground may still encourage odd temperature swings, but don’t see much of that this week.

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