Severe Weather Discussion for August 29 – September 4, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for August 29 – September 4, 2011.
Issued:  08/28/2011.

Highlights:

–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday-Thursday, with a decent chance Friday-Sunday.

–  Temperatures will be near 104F Monday, 102F Tuesday-Thursday, and mid 90s Friday-Saturday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Tropical Development:  30%

Discussion:

Now that Irene is making a graceful exit from the northeast U.S., life as we know it can get back to normal.  Maybe even a decent TV show or something, although I’ll be avoiding Cantore Stories for now.

Models are similar in continuing the persistence and rather irritating ridge to our west.  OKC reached 108F today, blowing away the prior high of 103F and giving OKC day 56 of 100F temperature.  Appears that several more are on the way before a “cool” down.  However, despite typical weather this time of year, the cool down may not be driving by the mid-latitudes but a tropical system moving northward into Texas and potentially southern Oklahoma.  The increase in moisture associated with this system, along with lift should be enough for showers and thunderstorms across the region later in the week.  The system is due in around Thursday/Friday.  This should also keep temperatures from reaching 100F in OKC.  The ridge also looks to weaken, so lower heights may also help.  Between now and then, status quo seems the rule.  No reason to get fancy with temperatures as near 100F looks likely through Thursday, with the ridge placed to the west of OK and heights 591dm and above.  Storms are ongoing in western Oklahoma and as has been the case much of the summer, can’t rule out development through the week.  However, the best chance will be late this week as the tropical system moves into the region.

Went with NAM temps through Wednesday and GFS through Friday.  I kept temps up a little this weekend given recent trends of a cool bias.

Tropical development remains up as there is another system just west of Africa.

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