Severe Weather Discussion for July 11 – 17, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for July 11 – 17, 2011.
Issued: 07/10/2011.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be near 103-105F Monday – Friday, and 101-102F Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5% - Storm Chase: < 5% - Tropical Development: < 5% Discussion: Not much to talk about this week, persistence remains the best forecast. Very dry ground and seasonable pattern will yield temperatures above 100F all week. Little to no relief is seen this forecast period. Peak temperature in OKC is 94F starting the 17th, so we haven't reached the hottest time of year. NAM has a decent handle on temperatures and as with last week stayed with it. ECMWF/persistence was used for extended range. GFS MOS has no clue and is ignored. In general went above model MOS all week. See no reason to go with temperatures below 100F until conditions warrant. A weak tropical system will move into western sections later this week, with some chance of showers. Overall chance is too low for POPs right now.

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