Severe Weather Discussion for July 4 – 10, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for July 4 – 10, 2011.
Issued:  07/03/2011.

Highlights:

–  A few thunderstorms are possible each day this week, with maybe a severe storm or two.

–  Temperatures will be near 101F – 104F Monday – Thursday, and 99F-100F Friday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Tropical Development:  5%

Discussion:

More of the same this week as the atmosphere appears locked into a summer pattern much earlier than climatology would suggest.  Normal high is 91F this week, while actual air temperatures will be about 10F higher all week.  Models are in decent agreement slightly weakening the ridge by the end of the forecast period and this will help temperatures drop a little.  Given baked ground and little/no prospects for meaningful rainfall, expect temperatures to easily get near or above 100F all week and maybe only to 99F/100F late in the forecast period, assuming models are correct.  GFS MOS still appears unrealistic as the model doesn’t warm us up enough.  Ensemble members are similar but at least a few get the warm temperatures across the state.

Thunderstorms the past few days continue to indicate potential for a few storms each day.  Severe thunderstorm potential is low, which is expected this time of year.  Doesn’t rule out one or two.

Tropical Storm Arlene provided no relief to the lower 48, so we’ll wait for the next one.  Still early in the season as mid August starts the peak of tropical season.  ECMWF did show another tropical system moving west under the central U.S. ridge late this week.  We’ll see!

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