Severe Weather Discussion for June 20 – 26, 2011


Severe Weather Discussion for June 20 – 26, 2011.
Issued:  06/19/2011.

Highlights:

–  Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across central/eastern Oklahoma.  Primary threats are damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a brief tornado.

–  Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across southeast Oklahoma.

–  A chance of thunderstorms will exist into next weekend, primarily in east-central/northeast Oklahoma.

–  Summer officially starts Tuesday at 12:16pm.

–  Temperatures will be near 100F on Monday, mid 90s Tuesday – Saturday, upper 90s Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  35%
–  Storm Chase:  5%
–  Tropical Development:  < 5%

Discussion:

Drought conditions continue across the state and recent excessive heat implies such.  OKC broke two record highs this week and tied one.  Luckily a western U.S. shortwave trof will traverse the region late Monday into Tuesday.  A weak cold front should push through the region and take the edge off for a few days.  Given very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s, severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as the upper system approaches.  If this was in late May, we’d be looking a chase tomorrow.  SPC Day 2 has a 10% hatched area across parts of the state and this appears reasonable and focused on damaging wind.  The threat will progress eastward during the night.  I put severe chances in for southeast section on Tuesday for lingering activity and fits with Day 3.  Models show northwest flow setting up on Wednesday with an MCS that night or Thursday.  I went with storm chances east as best fit to NWS Tulsa.  Not sure about severe chances later in the week, but we saw what happened this past week.  Currently the threat is on the lower end of the scale but a focused event could certainly happen on any given convective day due to time of year and potential for damaging winds.  ECMWF hints at the 588dm ridge building northward by Saturday with seemingly warming temperatures across the state.  The party line for OKC appears to be low 90s, but I’m going higher and feel that even mid-90s may not be high enough.  True that 850mb temperatures are much cooler than previous days but the ground is still baked/dry.  Hopefully the mid-90s will hold as too high, as low 90s would be a nice reprieve from the heat and closer to normal for this time of year.

In general, I went warmer than guidance through the period.

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