Severe Weather Discussion for June 6 – 12, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for June 6 – 12, 2011.
Issued:  06/06/2011.

Highlights:

–  Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday – Thursday, low 90s Friday – Saturday, and mid 90s Sunday.

–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday – Saturday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Tropical Development:  10%

Discussion:

Not much to talk about, subtropical ridge is strongly influencing the region this week, a continuation from last week.  Models tend to agree that the ridge will weaken slightly later this week, giving parts of Oklahoma a chance for rain.  Additionally, reduced temperatures seem in the offering for a few days.  However, general trends also indicate that the ridge will reform by Sunday or at the latest next week.  Much of this is bad news as drought conditions continue and will worsen given lack of much needed June rain.

I went 10% on the tropical stuff given the system out there now, however it isn’t expected to do much.  Forecast highs are taken from persistence.  I’m not quiet inclined to go upper 90s, but if we don’t get rain that will likely be needed by next week.

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