Severe Weather Discussion for May 30 – June 5, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for May 30 – June 5, 2011.
Issued:  05/30/2011.

Highlights:

–  Thunderstorms are possible in northwest Oklahoma later today, a severe thunderstorm is also possible.  Showers are possible across the state on Tuesday.  Hot and dry from Wednesday through Sunday.

–  Temperatures will be in the upper 80s today-Tuesday, low 90s Wednesday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  10%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%

Discussion:

Models continue to advertise a closed low/progressive shortwave trof ejecting north-northeast into south-central Canada later today as a medium wavelength ridge persists across the eastern U.S.  This ridge will shift westward late Tuesday into Wednesday and will likely suppress convection beyond Tuesday.  For today, a few severe thunderstorms are possible in northwest Oklahoma and SPC has this area in a slight risk.  Overall chances are low, but large hail will be likely with any storms that form.  A similar potential for showers exists in Oklahoma on Tuesday as a cold front weakens and starts to wash-out.  Beyond Tuesday, the models are in good agreement that at least a 588dm ridge will dominate the state through Sunday.  Mean position of the ridge over the south-central to southeast U.S. will limit MCS events through the week.  June is traditionally a wet month for the state and much of the state still needs rain, especially western sections.

Temperatures will generally be 8-9 degrees above normal this week.  I went on the lower end of guidance given the amount of water in the ground.  Western parts of the state have been quite warm and will continue to be such until appreciable rainfall occurs.  Temperatures in Oklahoma City will likely nudge up by next week if rain doesn’t occur and the ground begins to dry out.

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